FluWatch

Wiki Attention Index (Now)

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ln-weighted composite

7-Day Pageview Total

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across 6 flu pages

Anomaly vs. Baseline

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vs. seasonal average

Signal Strength

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model R² = 0.94

Model: Vij (2025) Fixed-Effects Regression

Indiana University · Kelly School of Business

Wikipedia attention for flu-related topics predicts CDC ILI (% of outpatient visits) one week ahead. Baseline regression on 104 weeks (2018–2024) with week-of-year and year fixed effects.

ILIₜ = β₁ · WI_t−1 + β₂ · WI_t−2 + γ{woy} + δ{yr} + εₜ
WI = (1/6) · Σ ln(1 + viewsₖ)

β₁ (L1 lag)

+90,796

p = 0.021 ★

β₂ (L2 lag)

−91,779

p = 0.007 ★★

R²

0.9412

N = 104 weeks

Post-2023 R²

0.9710

Signal persists ✓

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14-Day Wikipedia Attention Trend

Individual Page Signals

Model: Vij (2025) Fixed-Effects Regression